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2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #36

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2019 SkS Weekly Local weather Change & International Warming Digest #36

Posted on 15 September 2019 by John Hartz

Story of the Week… Toon of the Week… Coming Quickly on SkS… Local weather Suggestions Evaluations… SkS Week in Overview… Poster of the Week…

Story of the Week…

The air above Antarctica is all of a sudden getting hotter – right here’s what it means for Australia

Antarctica via NASA satellite

Antarctic winds have an enormous impact on climate elsewhere. Picture: NASA Goddard House Flight Middle/Flickr CC BY-SA

Report heat temperatures above Antarctica over the approaching weeks are prone to deliver above-average spring temperatures and below-average rainfall throughout massive components of New South Wales and southern Queensland.

The warming started within the final week of August, when temperatures within the stratosphere excessive above the South Pole started quickly heating in a phenomenon referred to as “sudden stratospheric warming”.

Within the coming weeks the warming is forecast to accentuate, and its results will lengthen downward to Earth’s floor, affecting a lot of japanese Australia over the approaching months.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting the strongest Antarctic warming on document, prone to exceed the earlier document of September 2002.

The air above Antarctica is all of a sudden getting hotter – right here’s what it means for Australia by Harry Hendon, Andrew B. Watkins, Eun-Pa Lim & Griffith Younger , The Dialog AU, Sep 6, 2019

Click on right here to entry your entire article. 

Toon of the Week…

 2019 Toon 36

Hat tip to the Fb web page of Cease Local weather Science Denial

Coming Quickly on SkS…

Local weather implications of the EPA methane rule rollback (Dana)
Skeptical Science New Analysis for Week #36, 2019 (Doug Bostrom)
How local weather change is making hurricanes extra harmful (Jeff Berardelli)
What psychotherapy can do for the local weather and biodiversity crises (Caroline Hickman)
A small electrical airplane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air journey (Lindsay Fendt)
2019 SkS Weekly Local weather Change & International Warming Information Roundup #37 (John Hartz)
2019 SkS Weekly Local weather Change & International Warming Digest #37 (John Hartz)

Local weather Suggestions Evaluations…

[To be added.]

Poster of the Week…

2019 Poster 36 

SkS Week in Overview… 

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Climate Change

Opinion: Listen to the climate strikers. It’s suicidal to stick your head in the sand next to a rising sea

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Immediately’s world local weather strike over humankind’s collective failure to take efficient measures to deal with world warming arises, as do most protests, out of frustration over the established order. And there’s so much to be annoyed with.

For starters, except you’re employed within the Trump administration, you’ve gotten a fairly good concept that we’re cooking ourselves, in addition to a fairly good concept how we’re doing it. Driving. Powering trade. Burning fossil fuels to create electrical energy. Consuming an excessive amount of beef (resulting in deforestation and methane emissions). The listing goes on.

And you’ve got a fairly good concept, too, of a few of the steps essential to scale back or remove carbon emissions. Drive much less and use electrical autos as a substitute of gasoline-burners. Use renewable sources for energy technology. Embrace extra environmentally pleasant diets.

But outdated habits die exhausting. In 2015, the yr the world’s nations agreed in Paris to undertake insurance policies to attempt to restrict the rise in world temperature to lower than 2 levels Celsius above pre-industrial ranges (with a most popular goal of 1.5 levels), Individuals drove a collective 3.04 trillion miles. Final yr, we drove a collective 3.21 trillion miles, a rise of 170 billion miles, the overwhelming majority of it in gas-burning motor autos.

Clearly, we have now but to show this ship round.

Immediately’s protests needs to be welcomed, and never with only a nod to the younger people who find themselves propelling most of it. Much like the youth-driven motion for gun management within the wake of the 2018 Marjory Stoneman Douglas Excessive College bloodbath in Parkland, Fla., the youth drive for local weather options is a generational demand that the present energy construction get previous its inner rivalries, and its susceptibility to lobbying from the very forces which might be killing us, and do one thing about the issue.

However will it? We’ll discover out subsequent week on the U.N. local weather summit, through which chosen leaders of world nations are purported to trot out concrete plans for lowering carbon emissions. Not pledges. Not platitudes. However actual actions and packages.

As The Instances editorial board just lately specified by a three-part sequence, we’re past the purpose of no return on local weather change, which has already been a think about forcing tens of millions of individuals emigrate, growing species extinctions, fueling extra intense storms and flooding, and on and on.

However that doesn’t imply we should always simply throw up our arms and sing the refrain from that outdated R.E.M. music, “It’s the top of the world as we all know it, and I really feel high quality.”

We will and should act to mitigate the worst of what’s going to come. We have to marshal world sources — led by the rich nations that profited probably the most from economies fueled by burning coal and oil — to radically remodel the way in which humankind creates and eat power.

And sure, will probably be costly, and disruptive. Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.), as soon as once more searching for the Democratic nomination for president, acknowledged that his $16-trillion local weather plan would require reworking the power trade, costing numerous jobs within the oil and gasoline sectors whereas creating numerous jobs within the rising renewable sector.

This isn’t to endorse Sanders or his plan, however he’s spot on when he asks, “What’s the different?”

The choice is escalating world degradation, exacerbating the extinctions of different species, collapsing world meals chains, and within the course of making the earth much less and fewer inhabitable for humankind.

And immediately’s protesters have it proper, too. We should do extra, higher and quicker as a result of we have now no acceptable different.

Two avian-related maxims come to thoughts. We’ve been fouling our personal nest for a lot, far too lengthy. And it’s suicidal to stay our heads in seaside sand subsequent to a rising sea.

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Climate Change

Greta Thunberg is a painful reminder of decades of climate failures

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Greta Thunberg is a painful reminder of a long time of local weather failures

Posted on 19 September 2019 by dana1981

It is a re-post from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

This story is a part of Masking Local weather Now, a worldwide collaboration of greater than 300 information shops to strengthen protection of the local weather story.

Sixteen-year-old Swedish local weather activist Greta Thunberg has ignited the local weather motion, most not too long ago taking a zero-carbon ocean voyage to America to attend the September 23rd UN local weather summit in New York Metropolis. She’s develop into so efficient and provoking that those that need to keep the established order—predominantly rich and highly effective previous white males—have begun to assault her. Greta has been known as “the worldwide mascot for local weather alarmism … mentally unstable,” “a millenarian cult chief,” a “deeply disturbed messiah of the worldwide warming motion,” a “teenage puppet,” a “petulant little one,” and way more.

Greta articulated her views in a TEDx discuss through which she precisely described the state of local weather science and the truth that if we’re to fulfill the Paris local weather targets, developed international locations particularly should quickly cut back their carbon air pollution. As Greta notes, the world has to this point didn’t act, partly as a result of most individuals don’t understand that speedy change is required.

However local weather scientists have been warning a couple of potential local weather disaster for many years, whereas the Silent Technology and Child Boomers didn’t act on these warnings. In consequence, they frittered away the chance to transition away from fossil fuels with relative ease. Due to these a long time of inaction, we now face a frightening job.

Whereas some older People could “don’t have any endurance for youngsters who lecture adults,” Greta’s technology has each proper to criticize them for endangering humanity’s future prosperity. Let’s look at the historical past of local weather change warnings and missed alternatives.

1960s–1970s. Each American president for the reason that 1960s has been warned about local weather change. In 1965, President Lyndon Johnson’s science advisory committee despatched him an environmental report with a bit on atmospheric carbon dioxide and local weather change. These prime scientists wrote: “By means of his worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting an unlimited geophysical experiment. Inside a couple of generations he’s burning the fossil fuels that slowly collected within the earth over the previous 500 million years … The climatic adjustments that could be produced by the elevated CO2content material could possibly be deleterious from the perspective of human beings.”

In 1979, the world’s foremost local weather scientists revealed a significant local weather report discovering that if people double the quantity of carbon dioxide within the environment, Earth’s common floor temperatures will heat three levels Celsius (plus or minus 1.5 levels Celsius)—in line with estimates from at the moment’s local weather scientists, and a particularly harmful stage of local weather change. The report included an identical warning to that in 1965, “Man is unwittingly conducting an unlimited experiment … marked adjustments in local weather, not controllable by native and even nationwide efforts, may happen.”

That yr, President Carter put in 32 photo voltaic panels on the White Home and known as for a marketing campaign to conservative power in the course of the Center East oil embargo, however President Reagan didn’t share Carter’s environmental consciousness and eliminated the photo voltaic panels in 1986.

1980s. Within the early 1980s, Exxon’s local weather scientists issued inside firm experiences warning that fossil gasoline consumption may double atmospheric carbon dioxide ranges by 2060, pushing world temperatures up by greater than 2 levels Celsius. In 1988, an inside Shell firm report included an identical warning, however famous that we may attain doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide ranges as quickly as 2030 in a situation with excessive fossil gasoline consumption. Shell’s scientists warned the corporate: “The [climate] adjustments stands out as the best in recorded historical past … the power business will clearly must work out the half it ought to play within the improvement of insurance policies and programmes to sort out the entire [climate] drawback.” As we now know, the business determined to spend lots of of tens of millions of {dollars} in a public disinformation marketing campaign to undermine help for local weather insurance policies.

A number of prime local weather scientists delivered a transparent, public warning a couple of potential local weather disaster in congressional testimony in June 1988. NASA local weather scientist James Hansen testified that human-caused world warming was already detectable. NOAA scientist Syukuro Manabe mentioned some local weather impacts like earlier snowmelt and worsening droughts, whereas George Woodwell of the Woods Gap Analysis Middle stated that planning should start for a pointy discount within the burning of fossil fuels and for reforestation efforts.

The congressional listening to and scientific testimony had a direct affect on policymakers. In a speech delivered on the marketing campaign path a couple of months later in August 1988, soon-to-be president George H.W. Bush declared, “Those that suppose we’re powerless to do something in regards to the greenhouse impact are forgetting in regards to the White Home impact.” President Bush quickly had a possibility to ship on that promise in the course of the first main diplomatic assembly on world warming, held in Noordwijk, Netherlands in November 1989.

However, as Nathaniel Wealthy documented for the New York Occasions, Bush had appointed local weather denier John Sununu as his chief of employees. Upon listening to an outline of Hansen’s congressional testimony, Sununu declared it “technical rubbish.” Whereas EPA Administrator William Ok. Reilly fought for america to take a management function by demanding a worldwide treaty to scale back carbon emissions, Sununu overruled him. The White Home censored testimony delivered by Hansen and different authorities scientists in a second congressional local weather listening to in 1989. And on the November worldwide local weather negotiations in Noordwijk, Sununu’s representatives compelled the convention to desert a dedication to freeze greenhouse fuel emissions.

1990s. By the point of the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, Bush was sounding like Donald Trump when talking about local weather change, declaring, “I’m not going to go to the Rio convention and make a nasty deal or be a celebration to a nasty deal.”

Invoice Clinton defeated Bush within the presidential election that November, and in 1993 proposed an power tax to start addressing local weather change. However, spooked by the shut name on the Noordwijk worldwide local weather negotiations, Exxon and different fossil gasoline corporations had begun spending tens of millions of {dollars} campaigning towards local weather motion, eroding help in Congress and dooming the invoice.

In 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) concluded, “doubtlessly critical [climate] adjustments have been recognized, together with a rise in some areas within the incidence of utmost high-temperature occasions, floods, and droughts … Delaying [mitigation and adaptation] measures could go away a nation or the world poorly ready to take care of antagonistic adjustments and will improve the potential for irreversible or very pricey penalties.”

Whereas President Clinton finally signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998, the Senate had already voted 95-Zero to pre-emptively declare its opposition to the treaty, and refused to ratify it.

2000s. In 2001, the IPCC warned, “some excessive occasions are projected to extend in frequency and/or severity in the course of the 21st century attributable to adjustments within the imply and/or variability of local weather, so it may be anticipated that the severity of their impacts may even improve in live performance with world warming … The impacts of future adjustments in local weather extremes are anticipated to fall disproportionately on the poor.”

President George W. Bush took workplace that yr, and his 8-year presidency was marred by censorship of federal local weather science experiences, obstruction of worldwide local weather negotiations, and a refusal to implement any federal local weather insurance policies.

The 2007 IPCC report detailed many local weather change dangers, together with of large-scale species extinctions: “Roughly 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed to this point are more likely to be at elevated danger of extinction if will increase in world common temperature exceed 1.5-2.5degrees Celsius.”

In 2009, america started to show the nook on local weather coverage. With President Obama within the White Home and with management of Congress, Democrats practically handed a carbon cap and commerce invoice. The laws handed the Home, however the specter of a filibuster from all Senate Republicans and some Democrats from fossil gasoline states killed the trouble.

2010s. Missing ample congressional help, President Obama was compelled to resort to govt motion, most notably in his second time period with the EPA’s Clear Energy Plan and his signing of the Paris local weather settlement.

The IPCC’s local weather warnings grew louder in its 2014 report, which concluded, “Impacts from latest climate-related extremes, reminiscent of warmth waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, reveal important vulnerability and publicity of some ecosystems and plenty of human programs to present local weather variability … Local weather-related hazards have an effect on poor individuals’s lives straight by impacts on livelihoods, reductions in crop yields, or destruction of houses and not directly by, for instance, elevated meals costs and meals insecurity.”

Sadly, after his election in 2016, President Trump reversed all the local weather insurance policies enacted by the Obama administration, together with asserting America’s withdrawal from the Paris settlement and gutting the Clear Energy Plan. Whereas US carbon air pollution fell over the previous decade because of a mix of the 2008 financial recession and a transition away from soiled coal energy, emissions spiked in 2018. Globally, most international locations’ local weather insurance policies stay inadequate to fulfill the Paris targets, with america among the many worst offenders. Because the unbiased group Local weather Motion Tracker has famous, “Reaching the [nationally determined contribution] goal would have required implementing extra insurance policies below the Obama Administration’s Local weather Motion Plan, which President Trump has rescinded.”

In 2018, the IPCC revealed a particular report that concluded, “The mixture of rising publicity to local weather change and the very fact that there’s a restricted capability to adapt to its impacts amplifies the dangers posed by warming of 1.5 levels Celsius and a couple of levels Celsius … the decrease the rise in world temperature above pre-industrial ranges, the decrease the dangers to human societies and pure ecosystems.” Based on NASA information, we surpassed the 1 diploma Celsius milestone round 2016.

We wasted a long time; now time is operating out. Crucially, the longer we wait to considerably curb carbon air pollution, the tougher and costly it will likely be to keep away from a local weather disaster. That is elegantly illustrated in a chart typically known as the “ski slopes.” Had world emissions peaked within the 1990s, we may have met the Paris targets by slowly and progressively lowering carbon air pollution within the ensuing a long time—a “bunny slope” path. Had they peaked within the early 2000s, we may have met the Paris objectives with extra average emissions cuts—the “intermediate slope.” However emissions haven’t but peaked as we method the yr 2020, and we’re nearing the “double black diamond” slope requiring extraordinarily speedy air pollution cuts if we’re to keep away from harmful warming past the Paris targets.

In brief, regardless of a long time’ value of warnings from local weather scientists, the elder generations squandered away the chance for a comparatively straightforward transition away from fossil fuels towards a secure local weather future. A lot of the blame lies with the fossil gasoline business and its pricey local weather disinformation marketing campaign, however there may be loads of blame to go round.

Whereas misogyny is undoubtedly at play within the assaults on Greta Thunberg, easy guilt is one other doubtless root trigger. Greta is the voice of a technology who will bear the results of their elders’ a long time’ value of missed alternatives and failures to heed local weather scientists’ warnings and start the transition away from fossil fuels whereas it may nonetheless be carried out progressively and with relative ease. Now, due to these failures, dramatic insurance policies to quickly overhaul our infrastructure are wanted, within the mildew of a Inexperienced New Deal. Some Republican policymakers are lastly calling for small steps to handle the issue like encouraging “innovation,” however whereas such modest measures would have been welcome 20 or 30 years in the past, they’re wholly inadequate to fulfill the scope of the issue we face at the moment.

Till our leaders implement main coverage adjustments to mitigate the local weather disaster, Greta’s technology can be wholly justified in lecturing them for selfishly frittering away the soundness of our world local weather. And primarily based on the abhorrent assaults on Greta that clumsily masks a deep sense of guilt, her critics realize it.

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Climate Change

Nature ‘one of most effective ways’ of combatting climate change

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World leaders will probably be gathering on the United Nations in New York subsequent week at a Local weather Motion Summit convened by the UN Secretary-Basic António Guterres and Ms. Andersen will probably be there to advertise the concept of nature-based options to combatting local weather change.

UNEP is supporting one of many 9 summit motion tracks designated by the Secretary-Basic beneath the management of the Governments of China and New Zealand.  UN Information requested Ms. Andersen how nature may help to reverse local weather change.

How is local weather change affecting the pure world?

The biggest glacier within the Swiss Alps, the Aletschgletscher, is melting quickly and will disappear altogether by 2100. Geir Braathen

The world’s local weather is altering quickly and these adjustments are evident every day. World temperatures are rising, rainfall patterns are altering and the climate in lots of components of the world is extra erratic and unpredictable than ever earlier than. The consequences are widespread; pure habitats are altering, biodiversity is being misplaced, farming cycles are being disrupted and water stress is changing into extra frequent than not.

Pure hazards reminiscent of floods, droughts, hurricanes and heatwaves have gotten extra excessive and frequent costing nations billions of {dollars} and destroying properties, infrastructure and livelihoods. The local weather disaster is threatening individuals’s well-being, meals safety and worsening poverty.

In June this 12 months, the UN Secretary-Basic mentioned the world must create situations for “concord between humankind and nature.”

What is supposed by a nature-based resolution?

Nature-based options are actions that defend, sustainably handle, and restore pure or modified ecosystems, that additionally tackle societal challenges, thereby concurrently offering human well-being and biodiversity advantages. So, whether or not its meals safety, local weather change, water safety, human well being, catastrophe threat or financial growth, nature may help us discover a method.

And local weather change is an important a part of the answer puzzle. There are various methods to deal with local weather change, however one of the vital efficient and speedy methods is utilizing what’s on our door step… nature.  

For instance, nature-based options can deal with decreasing emissions from deforestation and agricultural practices and enhancing the flexibility of pure ecosystems to take away carbon dioxide from the ambiance. Bear in mind, it’s carbon dioxide that contributes to the greenhouse gases that result in international warming.

The UN Secretary-Basic’s Local weather Motion Summit offers an opportune second to catapult nature-based options to the forefront of local weather motion.

What vary of options can be found?

Most nature-based options for local weather change come from strengthening or restoring current pure ecosystems. For instance, forests don’t simply take up carbon, in addition they defend us from its most devastating impacts. Fastidiously planted tree species can act as firebreaks, maintaining timber subsequent to farmland can defend crops from the erosive forces of intense rain, and forests can alleviate inland floods because of the sponge-like method they take up water.

 

Mangroves present efficient and low cost pure boundaries towards coastal floods and shoreline erosion. Altering our land practices alone might ship 30 per cent of the emissions reductions that we have to obtain the objectives of the Paris Settlement on local weather motion by 2030.

Restoring peatlands and different pure ecosystems are additionally efficient nature-based options.

Discover out extra right here about the advantages of peatlands: 

How efficient are they and at what monetary value?

Nature is offered now and we must always use it; there aren’t any fast technological fixes which have the identical scale of influence that nature-based options provide. Actually, these options might ship greater than a 3rd of the emissions reductions wanted globally by 2030.

Crucially, what’s urgently required is a rise in funding to unlock the potential of nature. Proper now, these options obtain lower than three per cent of accessible local weather funding, though they’re extraordinarily value efficient. And, they provide a really excessive return on funding probably including trillions of {dollars} to the worldwide financial system. For instance, the constructing of the Nice Inexperienced Wall an formidable challenge to reverse desertification within the Sahel area of Africa might create 10 million jobs there by 2030 and produce other advantages together with slowing migration.

These options need to be built-in into local weather adaptation and mitigation efforts. Globally, governments should align their efforts and decide to investing in these options as a part of their nationwide insurance policies.

How vital are NBSs within the total struggle towards local weather change?

The underside line is that we can not restrict warming to 1.5°C (or 2°C for that matter) with out pure local weather options. Nature-based options have the potential to scale back emissions of carbon dioxide by 12 gigatons every year. That is roughly equal to emissions from all of the world’s coal fired crops. On the similar time, it is very important take into account, firstly, that growing ambition requires us to commit concurrently to an power transition and larger investments in nature.  And secondly, if we don’t act on nature now, then nature’s capacity to guard humanity will diminish much more. So, nature is on the desk as an answer to local weather motion, however solely simply and we have now to grab the second. The excellent news is nature is forgiving and it’s time we gave it the prospect it deserves.

Are there sufficient initiatives underway proper now globally to make a distinction?

The Govt Director of the UN Atmosphere Programme, Inger Andersen, addresses a gathering in Nairobi, Kenya. UNEP/Cyril Villemain

We’re in a interval of worldwide emergency, but additionally in a interval of unprecedented momentum. Younger individuals are holding us to account, and each week a authorities someplace on the earth, commits to local weather motion. Nature-based options are instantly out there, cost-effective and may be scaled up relying on want. And each nation on the earth can act.

And we have now many examples of success. When the Nice Inexperienced Wall is accomplished in 2030, restored land will take up carbon dioxide equal to maintaining all of California’s vehicles parked for 3½ years. In Niger, farmer-led reforestation has improved tree cowl, decreasing girls’s time in accumulating firewood from three hours to 30 minutes. And Medellin in Colombia diminished temperatures by greater than 2°C by turning their concrete jungles into city forests.

So, we have to scale up initiatives like this, construct on political momentum and ship on the scale and tempo wanted to propel us past the ambitions of the Paris Settlement as a result of after we give nature an opportunity, we have now a greater shot at attaining the Sustainable Growth Objectives.

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